- A címlapsztori olaj részvények vásárlását szorgalmazza. http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123275443103011631.html (Ne lepődjünk meg, ha hétfőn ezen részvények jó pár százalékot emelkedni fognak.)
- Közlik az éveleji kerekasztal beszélgetésük harmadik, befejező részét. A sok megszólaló közül – szerintem - annak a Marc Faber-nek a véleménye a legadekvátabb, aki már tavaly ilyenkor súlyos problémákra figyelmeztetett. Szerinte csak idő kérdése, hogy az amerikai kormányzat mikor fog csődbe menni. Ez és a horribilis gazdasági helyzet ellenére még szerinte is emelkedhetnek a részvények. Intel, Cisco, Yahoo, Oracle és Microsoft részvényeket vásárolt nemrégiben. Az év század shortjának az amerikai állampapírokat nevezi. Szó szerint lásd lentebb. http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123276613972012603.html
Faber: I'm not optimistic about the global economy. The next Madoff case -- the next Ponzi scheme -- is the U.S. government. It will go bust. It is only a question of time. The fascinating thing about asset markets today is that everything is connected -- the dollar, the economy, equity and bond markets, currencies. When one thing moves, so does something else. That makes the market ideal for short-term traders. Last year it was easy to see that the dollar was oversold and pound sterling was overbought, that the yen was relatively cheap and financial markets were expensive, that the economy would worsen and commodities would come under pressure. Today the private markets are deleveraging, governments around the world are throwing money at the system, and there is huge volatility. Everybody says stocks are cheap because they're down 50% from the peak. But Japan was at the same level four weeks ago as in 1981. Korea was at 1988 levels. These markets are relatively cheap because in 20 years there has been progress. If the U.S. went back to 1990 levels, the Standard & Poor's 500 would be at 300.
It's not impossible.
Faber: That would be an interesting entry point. Having said that, the market gave back in the 14 months ended Nov. 21 as much as in 1973-74. Stocks became oversold. People may interpret the coming fiscal and monetary reflation as slightly more favorable, and stocks might rise. You can have a horrible economic backdrop and markets that move up.
